Claim: Miami-Dade Population Shrank Between 2019 & 2022

Miami-Dade County’s population is claimed to have shrunk between 2019 and 2022, according to a report in the WSJ.

It is the first population loss for Miami-Dade over a multi-year period since at least 1970, the WSJ wrote, citing the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Here’s how Miami-Dade’s population has changed in the past few years, according to Brookings Institution analysis of Census data released earlier this year:

  • 2018-2019 +1,901
  • 2019-2020 (4,309)
  • 2020-2021 (25,080)
  • 2021-2022 +3,416

The county had a population of 2,701,762 in 2020, so the net loss is less than 1%.

Miami-Dade was also the top ranked county in the U.S. for population growth from international migration during the past few years, adding 15,108 in 2020-2021 and 39,170 from 2021-2022 (the numbers above include both domestic and international migration, as well as natural growth).

While the Census claims Miami-Dade losses during the pandemic, other indicators such as restaurant activity, pedestrian traffic, and car traffic seem to indicate otherwise.

Housing prices here soared after the pandemic, with a sharp increase in demand and a sharp decrease in inventory of both apartments and houses.

Miami International Airport also saw the highest growth in the country, and continues to break all-time records.

 

 

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MiyamiKenyati
1 month ago

“I go to restaurants and they are busy” and “there’s more pedestrians walking around Brickell” are not empirical arguments. You can’t just wish away something you don’t want to be true.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Look at the added housing units that have come into the county over this time – all quickly filling up. They can’t all be filled by non-residents. Census tracking is flawed.

Kermit
1 month ago

If you add 1 millionare for every 5 blue collar workers leaving to Orlando or Texas then you still have a city with a declining population.

Anonymous
1 month ago

But the people who leave are being documented, however the people that are coming in are not. That might be more realistic.

Reynold
1 month ago

Agree !!!!

KevinNash92
1 month ago

>You can’t just wish away something you don’t want to be true.
Except anyone who actually has been in Miami before and after can observe it. And we most of us would WISH this were true considering how traffic, lines at stores and restaurants, infrastructure in general are all being overwhelmed by the population and a government that takes stats like this and carries on with the deluded mindset that this is somehow a sleepy beach town and not the reality that it’s the biggest city in the 3rd most populated state in the country.

Name
1 month ago

Oh a DC story based on St Louis report. No bias there! I’ve never seen Miami-dade this popular and bush with full time residents. This report is bull.

Miami or Nowhere
1 month ago

This is a false claim. Designed to keep people trapped up north in the hellos cold polluted states.

NYC transplant
1 month ago

Just be happy we aren’t living in NYC anymore where there are more riots than there are holidays, like this one today over a PlayStation 5 giveaway. I’m sure another 1000 people will move to Miami within the next month after this one…

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NYC transplant
1 month ago

Brickell is the newer better Manhattan.

Bruno
1 month ago

Agreed.
Having said that, the US Census has gotten it wrong as long as I’ve lived in Miami or Miami Beach.
Every census, they are off by 10’s of thousands.

Mike Oxlong
1 month ago

This is hard to believe but at the same time i think tourism, outside investors that just buy properties that sit empty and snowbirds make miami seem more full than it actually is. Also rising COL is pushing lots of people out. People say there are lots of immigrants/undocumented but let’s be honest most of them can’t afford to actually live in Miami.. the population of actual people in Miami may be going down.

Azarius
1 month ago

Tourism Up but Living/Working Residents are Down

Anonymous
1 month ago

It’s been so busy in the summers! I think people are not calling it home when they’re really here. Work from home.

Cover the Podiums
1 month ago

The people in the comments saying its not accurate don’t understand the full picture. The people moving in droves are remote tech and finance bros making six figures…the only people that can afford these new apartments. Normal families are not really moving here. Housing is too expensive and the salaries suck.

With these tech bros moving in, it drives the cost of everything up. Pushing entire families out that are tired of living paycheck to paycheck. They are moving to charlotte, orlando, etc. Where you get a bigger bang for your buck.

Either the hourly wages and salaries need to increase drastically, or you will continue to see entire families leaving miami-dade. Which could potentially see a burst of the real estate bubble, especially for places like little Haiti where they are asking $500k for 2bed shack house.

Anonymous
1 month ago

It’s hard to believe when you see so many new units going up in Homestead, Princeton, Florida City, Perine. It’s not just Brickell. Dormant areas on US1 between Palmetto Bay and Florida City have sprouted up over night. I don’t see how this could possibly be true either.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Most those areas haven’t even got their population back since Hurricane Andrew. Still, we need infill in more urban areas that don’t command high prices.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Thats not true, there have been houses and buildings going up in those area… lots.

Adam
1 month ago

I’m from those areas and their populations are completely back and thriving , homestead took a while but are more populated then pre hurricane andrew

Ana
1 month ago

just look at everything south of Cutler Bay, there was nothing but farms, now there are neighborhoods on both sides of US1

Cover the podiums
1 month ago

Organic growth and wealthier families from out of state that can actually afford to buy homes in the suburbs.

I bet if you interview some of those families buying those houses you’re talking about, they are not your typical local Miami families.

Anon
1 month ago

clueless—he’s talking about apartment units going up in those areas, not houses.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Its hard to talk on this page because people tend to speak into an echo chamber and forget what the original comment was about

Cover the Podiums
1 month ago

Organic growth, that’s all. The numbers don’t lie buddy.

Anonymous
1 month ago

yes they do. Undocumented immigrants and work from home North Easterners. We all just mentioned this.

Back to Miami
1 month ago

I haven’t encountered many true locals in Miami since I’ve returned, as most people have immigrated here in the last decade. Over the past few decades, I’ve witnessed significant growth and transformation in the city. It used to be a transient place, but now it feels more like a destination where people want to live year-round. The community here is constantly changing, with newcomers continuously settling and making roots.

Bruno
1 month ago

Wrong.
The schools have extraordinary waitlists. It isn’t just “tech bros”

The retired lawyer living next door to me bought his house for $300k in 1992.
He was not “priced out”.
He got an offer from a Kendall guy for 10x of what he paid, and he and the missus retired to TN.

It’s not “only” tech bros. People who work hard for a long time and have children will naturally replace old retired people.

KC Jones
1 month ago

“No one goes there, it’s too crowded”- Yogi Berra

Downtowner
1 month ago

This is not a “claim” made by the Census Bureau. This is fact, based on data and research, rather than anecdotal observations about the number of customers at restaurants.

Anonymous
1 month ago

People are questioning the government-provided data, that may be adjusted later, how dare they!

Howard Roark
1 month ago

Yes. Trust the government. Always. Covid came from a wet market. How dare you suggest it was manufactured in a lab in Wuhan.

Bruno
1 month ago

Right.
The data and research from some suggests that you and your 3 year old should be wearing a mask to “flatten the curve”.

Adam
1 month ago

I have met so many people that have moved here and still haven’t changed their drivers license or registered at voters … more people are filling homes, apartments and condos everyday, system is flawed guaranteed

Yet Another Anonymous
1 month ago

Another small reason traffic has gone up while population might have gone down is that transit (mostly bus which used to be near 300,000 a day) has gone WAYYYY down since Uber and Covid. Even the super urban unique free Metromover ridership is down since 2014 despite dozens of developments downtown. Bus is still somewhere in the 100k range Metrorail is at maybe 2/3 of healthy ridership and headway times, and Metromover is back below 30k per day vs it’s trajectory to be over 40k by now based on 2010 to 2014 growth.

Anon
1 month ago

any yet half this board screams, no matter what the topic, about needing more public transit (that less and less people want to use).

Anonymous
1 month ago

The people ranting on this site about that don’t even take Mass Transit, lol, nailed it.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Again, Dade County’s population has been declining while South Florida, primarily PBC, is increasing. Not only northeasterners, but also people from Dade County and Broward County.

Duke
1 month ago

How is it that the population shrank yet housing prices have gone up?

Bruno
1 month ago

I can see how it’s possible
Retirerees (no income) are getting replaced by entrepreneurs with massive financial assets.

Conrad
1 month ago

I wonder if it’s the same Brookings Institution which stated that Sadam had weapons of mass destruction? 🤨

Anonymous
1 month ago

Must you be dumb much to believe these stats… First, it’s published by the government. Have you ever seen an efficient government employee/process/project? Second, you couldn’t possibly live in Miami and believe this atrocious statistic. We miamians know that we have multiplied ourselves in the past few years. I mean, we live here and see it. Who can tell us otherwise?

And finally, really estate prices… it doesn’t matter if people living here now make more than the people before. What matters is the amount of people vs the inventory. Inventory has increased, and prices have multiplied, and owner occupancy is much more higher than before (we had mostly investors before). Therefore, necessarily, population has increased. By a lot.

C.O. JONES
1 month ago

Brookings Institute numbers. Note federal government… may be better to have an open mind to learn about things rather than see the world through a tinted lens…

Ha.
1 month ago

WSJ numbers are deflated, like theirs polls for trump

Gustas
1 month ago

If you read the Fed’s post for Miami, the resident population for the Miami Metropolitan Area did appear to decline between the years 2019 and 2022, but the population has been rebounding.

I am not a statistician, but the difference seems to be a decline of -0.51%, -0.38%, and +0.49%

2019 – 6,164,887 – N/a
2020 – 6,132,940 : -31,947
2021 – 6,109,373 : -23,567
2022 – 6,139,340 : +29,967

At the very best and worst, what it shows that the growth since 2019 has been essentially zero. This could also be within the margin of error.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MIMPOP

There can be other things too, greater out-migration of native Miamians has probably hit a high, and immigration to the region cannot replace the lost fast enough. Maybe the poor are leaving and where you had three working class people before you have two middle class new yorkers.

I feel, it does not bode well for Miami’s future though. If the City has been historically reliant on foreign immigration to from other regions and people looking to resettle from more expensive places up north. Foreign immigrants may choose other Florida cities like Orlando or Tampa and people looking for a lower cost of living may choose them as well.

Pedro
1 month ago

I wonder what county water records and sewage records may say?

Anonymous
1 month ago

I think you hit the nail on the head, there is some stat shifting here… The Miami Metro Area vs Miami Dade County is a different story.

Anon
1 month ago

The Miami Metro area is off the charts and seems to double each year.

Anonymous
1 month ago

I hear your senitment, but the Miami Metro includes Broward and WPB. So it doesnt double every year, but it is growing fast. Not as fast as Houston and Dallas but nearly as fast

Anon
1 month ago

Can we measure the growth in wealth per capita? That’s just as important as a headcount in terms of value and future growth.

Anonymous
1 month ago

It’s called undercounting. It was an issue that was raised during the last census. We have a heavy immigrant, both legal and illegal, population. Immigrants are less likely to respond to the census.

Anonymous
1 month ago

All that applies to Houston, yet their metro area reports huge increases.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Metro area isnt the same as the county of Miami Dade.

Anonymous
1 month ago

We also have lots of plainly stupid people that have never heard of a census or anything else to do with government.

Adam
1 month ago

Many people live here seasonally and may not have permanent Miami residence so I think that has to be accounted for, I guarantee in winter population change is completely different then summer

Anonymous
1 month ago

what? why is everything so full then? traffic has gotten worse. You need to make reservations at restaurants now. That didn’t used to happen…

Maybe
1 month ago

Maybe I should’ve responded to the census

Anonymous
1 month ago

Propaganda from the Wall Street Journal to cover for the losses and worsening of the quality of life in NYC

Anonymous
1 month ago

Don’t believe it. We had mass migration into the County and State. Hence, all the new towers going up and housing scarcity and lack of affordable housing.

UrbanImpact
1 month ago

New towers go up in many unaffordable cities that experience population loss.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Possibly, but generally not.
Not to the extent of all the Miami towers going up if there was no substantive growth.

Anon
1 month ago

Most of those new towers are investors/short term rentals. Doesn’t add to the population at all while causing the housing crises

Anonymous
1 month ago

most of them are condos/homes, they aren’t short term rentals, we hear about those all the time becasue they grab headlines.

Anonymous
1 month ago

I trust the Federal Reserve like I trust any other governmental agency with my ever decreasing in worth money they print.

anonymous
1 month ago

The US Census bureau is not a trustworthy or accurate federal agency, like so many others. Remember that in May of 2022 the Census bureau admitted that they undercounted Florida’s population by approximately 750,000 residents in the 2020 census! Google this if you don’t believe it. You can bet a large percentage of those undercounted would have been in Miami-Dade county. The US Census bureau is yet another fraudulent government entity in a nation now choking on corruption and deliberately-relayed disinformation. Florida is always undercounted by the Census Bureau and other, less corrupt organizations. One of the reasons for this is that it is very difficult to accurately estimate rapid population growth, even when the effort to do this is an honest one not tainted by political or economic agendas, and when relying on obsolete, traditional methods for estimating population trends.

Alceaus
1 month ago

I live in Blue MidWest but travel to South Florida frequently and can attest of the concerted effort to deride Miami-Dade in every possible way by partisan Democrat media with mostly lies or half true BS

no way
1 month ago

I don’t believe this AT ALL. Maybe all the people who are currently living here aren’t changing their info from their home states or maybe its the immigrant population (both documented and undocumented) not being fully counted but I have never seen Miami as full as it is now.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Miami Dade shrank but Miami grew, I guess. Didn’t. We have previous articles saying the opposite? Not scientific enough but from what I see, it’s been increasing exponentially.

Anon
1 month ago

THEORY: so that number of 60000 people moving here that was reported in the pandemic, i reckon that was new yorkers/cali whatever coming down to Brickell/edgewater/wynwood. Meanwhile inflation causing 100,000+ people in the suburbs (normal people) to head on out up to tampa etc. So its a net loss, but the busy areas are busier. VIOLA

Anonymous
1 month ago

The suburbs of Miami are inflated, the city part is still undervalued. Miami-Dade County is becoming Miami county.

Anonymous
1 month ago

Too many MAGATS

Miamian
1 month ago

So much whining here. Any story people don’t like they start crying “it’s ht media”, “it’s the liberal agenda”, etc. Foolish.

I’m born and raised in Miami. I have children in Miami Dade schools, I believe it. W ehave numerous teachers from our school who have left. Kids’ friends families have moved away, and a few others are leaving before the school year starts this week. Many of them are renting their homes, a few, including my neighbor, sold it to a family from South America who will be using it during their summer breaks (our winter). A family leaves, and an investor buys a home/apartment or new buyer is single, etc. there is a net loss.

Some of you need to get out of your Brickell bubble. Just because some of you moved from NYC three years ago doesn’t mean you know what is going on in the city or the rest of the county. I suspect this trend will continue in the near future. Around the county, you’re starting to see homes also stay in thr market longer than the past few years. What goes up, must come down.

Budding Bureaucrat
1 month ago

I believe that there’s a lot of people who are invested in bringing Miami down because they are interested in scaring people into staying in their failed northern cities.

Anonymous
1 month ago

I’ve been living in Miami for three years, since just before Labor Day 2020. Still have a New York drivers license and still own real estate in New York. So, I probably don’t show up as a Miami resident in this research. Surely there are plenty of others like me.

Mike T.
1 month ago

I don’t agree either. I read the WSJ article and its very negative piece about Miami in general. Written by two people who might have another agenda.

Anonymous
1 month ago

They have it out for florida for sure. Its highly political now, the Dem Left sees that we are disrupting the population base and congressional votes for NY. Im not a republican, but we have been labled as such regardless of our views by a far liening group from a hemogenous area.

Anon
1 month ago

There’s a lot of that in the media lately I’ve noticed—not even just Miami but Florida as a whole

Anonymous
1 month ago

In 2022, more than 250,000 Cubans migrated to the United States, and most of them reside in Miami-Dade County.

*NAME*
1 month ago

Made up stat alert!!

Anon
1 month ago

can’t be. Only 125k came during the Mariel boatlift.

MiamiIsStillMiami
1 month ago

Source?

Anonymous
1 month ago

Not a made up stat, Reuters has it at over 220k. I checked. And this is accurate, most came to South Florida after crossing the border in Mexico.

Ana
1 month ago

Reuters

anon
1 month ago

Miami Beach’s population also shrunk during COVID, ontop of the population loss in the 2010-2020 decade: https://betterstreetsmb.com/bsmb/miami-beachs-population-continues-to-fall/

Anonymous
1 month ago

I believe it. Turning into Portland on an barrier island with palm trees.

Anonymous
1 month ago

true, but mainland Miami Dade is growing so fast – def messed up stats

Bob
1 month ago

We are going to see a large drop in housing prices, whether or not population went up or down a bit there was not a large net influx of people to Miami to explain the drastic increase in prices. Possibly some wealthy people who moved here. When everyone is priced out, jobs not paying all that well, recipe for a large correction. Housing prices and transportation infrastructure need to be resolved so this city can grow sustainably.

Anon
1 month ago

If “everyone is priced out”, then that means demand is overwhelming and supply is inadequate, so no prices will not see a large drop.